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In this paper we make a two-fold contribution. We first examine the impact of agricultural subsidies on Greece, using a detailed, micro-panel dataset for four years, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014. Our analysis is illuminating at least two aspects of subsidies: first, it suggests that an incentive scheme for promoting a larger farm size would have a probable positive effect on agricultural value-added; second, that subsidies today produce the larger impact on future value-added for the top two percentiles of the subsidy distribution. The adjacent contribution is the presentation of a new theoretical model on subsidies where we examine the impact of land size and taxes on them. We estimate the model’s hyperparameters, using Greek data from the FADN database. Our new theoretical results, combined with the empirical analysis on the first part, suggest that agricultural subsidies are of dubious economic value, in magnitude and effect, and distort the incentives for returns-to-scale and increased working hours in Greek agriculture.

EN :

This paper provides new evidence on why people who are eligible to receive a benefit do not apply for it, an occurrence most commonly referred to as “non-take-up”. It examines the relationship between the characteristics of the Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) and the non-take-up rate achieved by these benefits. This study looks into five main causal conditions in the design of a GMI: the amount of the benefit, the duration of the benefit, the administration's resolution times, the documentation requirements and an aggregation of supply side factors. The sample used corresponds to the 19 existing regional GMI programmes in Spain. The existence of relationships between causal conditions is tested using the Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (FsQCA) methodology. The results show that there are three different combinations of conditions that result in less than 45% coverage of a GMI.

With these results it is possible to evaluate ex ante whether the Spanish Minimum Vital Income (MVI) can avoid the non-take-up problem that other GMIs have in Spain. We find that the new MVI does not follow any of the combined conditions that lead to the failings of the GMI’s coverage rate.

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This study investigates the extent to which capital inflows and their composition affect domestic credit growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and the role of institutional quality in mediating the capital inflows and domestic credit growth nexus. Using a sample of 130 EMDEs from 1991-2015, the study uses generalized method of moments to control for endogeneity issues. The study makes notable contributions to the literature and policy discourse. First, this is the first empirical studies that documents the persistence of domestic credit growth in EMDEs. Second, the study provides a granular analysis of the capital inflows – domestic credit growth nexus. Whereas gross capital inflows significantly exert a positive impact on domestic credit growth, disaggregated-level analyses showed that only foreign direct investment positively affects domestic credit growth whereas portfolio equity has a negative effect; and portfolio debt and other investment do not. Third, the study adds novel evidence that institutional quality plays a crucial role in mediating the capital inflows – domestic credit growth nexus. Fourth, this study crystallises the lens used to investigate the interactions between capital inflows and institutional quality in analysing the capital inflows – domestic credit growth nexus. Finally, the findings are helpful for designing and implementing macro-financial policy and strengthening institutions, especially in managing capital flows and financial sector.

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This paper examines the impact of Chinese economic growth on the real price of crude oil based on monthly time series data from 1992:01 to 2017:06 using structural vector auto-regression (SVAR). The variables of the SVAR model are global crude oil production, index of global economic activity, China’s real GDP and real price of crude oil. Due to a break in the real price of oil series during the 2008 global financial crisis, the data is divided into two intervals. The results for the period prior to the 2008 crisis show that global demand shocks had a significant impact, while shocks from Chinese economic activity and global oil supply were insignificant. However, the results for the post 2008 period demonstrate that demand shocks of the Chinese economy have a significant but delayed impact, while global supply shocks have an immediate impact. The findings indicate a new regime after the 2008 crisis with a resurgence of a supply driven crude oil market structure that is influenced by Chinese economic performance.

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This paper examines the bilateral relationship between the robot adoption and the age characteristics of the employment. The study analyzes the reciprocal effects of robotization on different generations and presents the analysis of the effects of age groups on the robotization of countries. Based on an instrumentalization of the System GMM estimation method of a dynamic panel dataset of 28 selected countries over 2004 and 2016, the results show that the number of young workers is affected negatively from robotization, whereas there is a positive impact of robot adoption on old workers. Evidence further suggests that robotization is triggered by the density of young workers in the workforce of the country.

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Manipulation of pandemic induced casualty data poses serious threat to globe. This study is an empirical attempt to assess possible factors causing such data fudging. In order to investigate strategic data misreporting by countries, we have employed acclaimed Benford’s law on numbers of deaths reported by 129 countries during both waves of pandemic. Finding reveals that alongside factors like degree of democracy, transparency etc., countries with poor digital awareness are subject to greater manipulation of data.

EN :

In this paper, we re-examine the Phillips curve for Canada from June 1976 to October 2022 in a time-varying manner. Our findings reveal that the impulse response of inflation to the changes in the unemployment rate gap has reduced over time till 2010 and strengthened thereafter. The response of inflation to the changes in the unemployment rate gap has increased in short and medium horizons after 2010. On further examination, we find that changes in both average import tariff and forward participation in the global value chain have reduced the inflation response to the changes in the unemployment rate gap.

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This paper studies the relationship between industry diversity and economic stability. The economic stability has been estimated using a panel-GARCH model. Our sample consists of US county-level data for the period 2003 to 2017. The results suggest that industry diversity improves economic stability and reduces a region’s unemployment rate. However, this study finds a negative relationship between industry diversity and economic growth. Although diversity negatively affects economic growth, it minimizes income loss when the nation falls into an economic recession. Therefore, we cannot conclude a tradeoff between economic stability and economic growth. It is possible that a region can achieve both stability and growth together through industry diversification. This paper also explores that the effects of diversity on economic stability, unemployment rate, and economic growth may vary between different counties depending on their metro or non-metro status. Thus, this paper suggests that policymakers may choose industry diversification as a strategy to achieve long-run economic stability and precaution against an unexpected economic downturn.