Abstracts
Summary
The present analysis seeks to examine whether the 2008 recession had a differential impact on Aboriginal as compared to non-Aboriginal Canadians as measured by the differences in the probability of unemployment between the two groups. Specifically, the present study tests two hypotheses: 1- Aboriginal people have been disproportionately burdened by the Great Recession as compared to non-Aboriginal people, and as a consequence; 2- Aboriginal people are more likely than non-Aboriginal people to be discouraged workers.
The study uses data obtained from the master files of the Canadian Labour Force Survey for the years 2007 to 2012 inclusive to estimate the probability that an individual is unemployed based on a set of observable characteristics for a sample of labour force participants. The methodology begins by estimating a pooled model across all years, which includes controls for Aboriginal identity. Secondly, individual models of the probability of unemployment are estimated for each year for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal labour force participants. The difference in the probability of unemployment from pooled models estimated separately for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal peoples are decomposed to reveal the proportion of the gap that is due to differences in observable characteristics between the two groups and the amount of the gap that is attributable to differential returns to those characteristics. To investigate the second hypothesis, the study estimates the probability that a respondent is a discouraged worker based on the entire sample of both economically active and inactive persons (i.e. labour force participants and well as those not in the labour force).
The results of both the pooled and individual models of the probability of unemployment support the first hypothesis, that Aboriginal peoples were disproportionately burdened by the 2008 recession as seen in higher and more enduring probabilities of unemployment. By the 2012, estimated unemployment rates had roughly returned to their pre-recessionary levels for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal respondents with strongest labour force attachments. When individuals with weaker labour force attachments (i.e. those who have been unemployed for more than twelve months) are included in the analysis, the gap between the probability of unemployment for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal persons widens. Furthermore, the second hypothesis, that Aboriginal people are more likely to be discouraged workers, was supported, as Aboriginal people were more likely to be discouraged workers in 2008-2010 and 2012.
Keywords:
- Aboriginal persons,
- unemployment,
- discrimination,
- discouraged worker
Résumé
La présente analyse cherche à déterminer si la récession de 2008 a eu un impact différencié sur les Canadiens autochtones, comparativement aux Canadiens non autochtones, en se basant sur les différences de probabilité de chômage entre les deux groupes. Plus spécifiquement, deux hypothèses sont formulées : 1- Les Canadiens autochtones ont été davantage frappés par cette « Grande Récession » et, par voie de conséquence; 2- Ils sont plus susceptibles que les Canadiens non autochtones de devenir des travailleurs découragés.
L’étude utilise les données du fichier maître de l’Enquête sur la population active (EPA) pour les années 2007 à 2012 inclusivement, afin d’estimer la probabilité pour une personne active de se retrouver en chômage à partir d’un ensemble de caractéristiques observables d’un échantillon de personnes faisant partie de la population active. Méthodologiquement, nous débutons l’analyse par l’estimation d’un modèle de données groupées couvrant les six années, lequel inclut des variables de contrôle pour l’identité autochtone. Puis, des modèles individuels (données non groupées) de la probabilité de se retrouver en situation de chômage sont estimés pour chacune des années retenues pour les participants autochtones et non autochtones. Les différences de probabilité de chômage estimées séparément pour les deux groupes dans le modèle de données groupées sont, ensuite, décomposées pour distinguer la proportion de l’écart attribuable à des différences de caractéristiques observables entre les deux groupes et celle attribuable aux différences de rendements sur ces caractéristiques. Pour vérifier la seconde hypothèse, l’étude estime la probabilité qu’un répondant soit un travailleur découragé à partir de l’échantillon entier des personnes économiquement actives et inactives (c’est-à-dire tant les personnes participantes à la population active que celles non participantes).
Les résultats des deux modèles, données groupées et données non groupées, de la probabilité de se retrouver en chômage appuient la première hypothèse à l’effet que les personnes autochtones ont été plus durement frappées par la récession de 2008 avec des probabilités plus élevées et plus durables. À la fin de la période, soit en 2012, les taux de chômage estimés avaient retrouvé leur niveau d’avant récession tant pour les répondantes et répondants autochtones que non autochtones affichant un attachement plus solide à la population active. Lorsqu’on inclut les personnes affichant un moindre attachement à la population active (c’est-à-dire celles ayant été en chômage pour une durée de plus de 12 mois) dans l’analyse, l’écart de probabilité de chômage entre les deux groupes s’accroît au détriment des personnes autochtones. De plus, la seconde hypothèse, à l’effet que les personnes autochtones sont plus susceptibles d’être des travailleurs découragés, s’avère supportée pour la période 2008 à 2010 et en 2012.
Mots-clés:
- Autochtones,
- chômage,
- discrimination,
- travailleur découragé
Resumen
El presente análisis se propone estudiar si la recesión de 2008 ha tenido un impacto diferencial para los canadienses autóctonos en comparación con los canadienses no autóctonos sobre la base de diferencias con respecto a la probabilidad de desempleo entre los dos grupos. Específicamente, el presente estudio verifica dos hipótesis: 1- La población autóctona ha sido agobiada desproporcionadamente por la Gran recesión comparativamente a la población no autóctona, y como consecuencia de ello; 2- la población autóctona es más propensa que la población no autóctona a desalentarse del trabajo.
El estudio utiliza datos obtenidos del banco de datos de la Fuerza de trabajo de Canadá (Canadian Labour Force) por los años 2007 a 2012 para estimar la probabilidad que un individuo sea desempleado basándose en un conjunto de características observables, utilizando una muestra de participantes. La metodología comienza con la estimación de un modelo combinado cubriendo todos los años del estudio, y que incluye controles según la identidad autóctona. En segundo lugar, los modelos individuales de probabilidad del desempleo son estimados para cada ano por los participantes autóctonos y por los participantes no autóctonos. La diferencia de probabilidad de desempleo estimados con los modelos combinados de manera separada para los participantes autóctonos y los no autóctonos, son descompuestos para revelar la proporción de la distancia debida a la diferencia de características observables entre los dos grupos y la amplitud de dicha distancia que es atribuible a las remuneraciones diferenciales correspondientes a esas características. Para investigar la segunda hipótesis, el estudio estima la probabilidad que un participante sea un trabajador desalentado basándose en la muestra completa de la población económicamente activa y de la población inactiva.
Los resultados de los modelos combinados y de los modelos individuales de probabilidad de desempleo confirman la primera hipótesis, es decir que la población autóctona fue desproporcionadamente agobiada por la recesión de 2008 tal como lo reflejan las probabilidades más elevadas y más duraderas de desempleo. Por el año 2012, las tasas de desempleo estimadas han bruscamente regresado a sus niveles pre-recesión para los participantes con alta integración en el mercado de trabajo, autóctonos y no autóctonos. Cuando los individuos con niveles de integración débiles (por ejemplo, aquellos que habían estado en desempleo por más de doce meses) son incluidos en el análisis, la distancia entre la probabilidad de desempleo para los autóctonos y los no autóctonos se amplifica. Más aún, la segunda hipótesis, que la población autóctona era más propensa a desalentarse del trabajo, fue confirmada: las personas autóctonas fueron más desalentados del trabajo durante el periodo 2008-2010 y en 2012.
Palabras claves:
- los aborígenes,
- desempleo,
- dismininación,
- trabajador desalentado
Appendices
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