Abstracts
Résumé
Cet article s’intéresse aux déterminants des investissements directs étrangers (IDE) européens dans les pays d’Europe Centrale et Orientale (PECO). Nous utilisons un modèle théorique permettant d’étudier les décisions des Firmes Multinationales. Deux estimations ont été effectuées : une coupe transversale sur la période (1996-2013) complétée par une méthode SURE (Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Method). Les variables macroéconomiques retenues (distance, intensité technologique, taille du marché, risque pays…) ont un impact déterminant sur les flux d’IDE, mais avec des résultats différenciés selon la méthode utilisée. Depuis le début des années 1990, l’attractivité des pays de l’Est est liée en grande partie aux perspectives ouvertes par leur adhésion à l’Union européenne, le choix de la méthode de privatisation des entreprises publiques a aussi joué un rôle. Pour les coûts salariaux les résultats obtenus sont plus ambigus : selon la coupe transversale l’impact est négatif et significatif, en revanche dans la méthode SURE, les résultats sont moins significatifs.
Mots-clés :
- IDE,
- Modèle gravitationnel,
- Pays d'Europe centrale et Orientale (PECO),
- Stratégie des firmes multinationales,
- Transition économique
Abstract
This paper explores the relationship between economic indicators and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Central and Eastern Europe countries. We estimate a gravity model of FDI for ten countries covering the period 1993-2013, employing the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Method. The results indicate that European inward investments are driven by the value of GDPs and the geographical distance. We find that institution stability, control of corruption, government effectiveness, and private sector policies are important factors driving FDI. The market size, the risk, the technological intensity, the geographic proximity and the privatization method explain a great part of bilateral FDI to the applicant countries.
Keywords:
- Gravity model,
- FDI flows,
- Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs),
- Strategy of multinational firms,
- Transition economies
Resumen
Estamos interesados en los determinantes de la inversión extranjera directa europea (IED) en los países de Europa central y oriental (PECO). Utilizamos un modelo teórico para estudiar las decisiones de empresas multinacionales, realizamos dos estimaciones: una sección transversal durante el período (1996-2013) completada por un método SURE (Método de regresiones aparentemente no relacionadas). Las variables macroeconómicas seleccionadas (distancia, intensidad tecnológica, tamaño del mercado, riesgo país, etc.) tienen un impacto decisivo en los flujos de IED, pero con resultados diferenciados según el método utilizado. Desde principios de la década de 1990, el atractivo de los países del Este ha estado ligado en gran medida a las perspectivas abiertas por su adhesión a la Unión Europea, y también influyó la elección del método de privatización de las empresas públicas. Para los costos laborales, los resultados obtenidos son más ambiguos: según el corte transversal, el impacto es negativo y significativo, en cambio en el método SURE los resultados son menos significativo.
Palabras clave:
- Flujos de IED,
- países de Europa central y oriental (PECO),
- estrategia de empresas multinacionales,
- economías en transición
Appendices
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