Abstracts
Résumé
La plupart des études sur la confession se sont penchées sur l’influence individuelle de différents facteurs explicatifs de la confession de suspects en contexte d’interrogatoire, négligeant les interactions potentielles entre ces facteurs et leur influence combinée sur la décision du suspect d’avouer ou non le crime reproché. Afin de remédier à cette situation, la présente recherche propose une approche profil basée sur des analyses d’arbres de classification et de régression, aussi appelées analyses d’arbres décisionnels, afin de déterminer les associations, la hiérarchie et le poids relatif de chacun de ces facteurs explicatifs dans le processus décisionnel du suspect. Cette étude repose sur les données autorévélées pour un échantillon de 211 détenus incarcérés dans un pénitencier canadien. Les résultats indiquent notamment la présence de différents profils/combinaisons de facteurs jouant un rôle plus ou moins grand dans le processus décisionnel et la probabilité d’une confession. Plus particulièrement, ils mettent de l’avant l’importance marquée des facteurs situationnels et l’influence qu’aura la police sur la prise de décision du suspect de confesser ou non son crime. Les profils décisionnels et le poids des facteurs explicatifs observés seront discutés à la lumière des connaissances actuelles quant à la confession, tout en soulignant l’implication de ces résultats pour les interrogatoires policiers.
Mots-clés :
- Interrogatoire policier,
- entrevue d’enquête,
- (non) confession,
- facteurs situationnels,
- analyses d’arbres décisionnels
Abstract
Most studies on confessions that occur during police interrogations have looked at the individual influence of various factors on the prevalence and probability of confession of suspects, neglecting potential interactions between these factors and their combined influence on the suspect’s decision on whether to confess to the crime. In order to bridge this gap, the present study proposes a profile-based approach using classification and regression trees as well as decision trees rather than the much more common variable-based approach to analyze interaction effects, hierarchical relationships, and the relative weight of a profile of factors in the decision-making process of the suspect. The study is based on self-reported data for a sample of 211 inmates in a Canadian penitentiary. Different profiles and combinations of factors were found to play more or less important roles in the decision-making process and the likelihood of a confession. In particular, the results highlight the importance of situational factors and the key role of the police and investigators in the suspect’s decision to confess or not during police interrogation. The decisional profiles observed and the importance of explanatory factors are discussed in light of current knowledge about confessions and the practical implication of these results for police interrogations are noted.
Keywords:
- Police interrogation,
- investigative interviewing,
- (non) confession,
- situational factors,
- decision tree analyses
Resumen
La mayoría de los estudios sobre la confesión se han interesado por la influencia individual de diferentes factores explicativos de la confesión de sospechosos en contexto de interrogatorio, abandonando las interacciones potenciales entre estos factores y su influencia combinada sobre la decisión del sospechoso de confesar o no el crimen del que se le acusa. Con el fin de remediar esta situación, este estudio propone una aproximación perfil basada en un análisis de árboles de clasificación y regresión, también llamados análisis de árboles decisionales, con el fin de determinar las asociaciones, la jerarquía y el peso relativo de cada uno de estos factores explicativos en el proceso decisional y la probabilidad de una confesión. Más específicamente, los resultados de este estudio muestran la gran importancia de los factores situacionales, así como la influencia jugada por la policía en la decisión del sospechoso de confesar o no. Los perfiles decisionales y el peso de los factores explicativos observados fueron discutidos a la luz de los conocimientos actuales sobre la confesión, subrayando la implicación de estos resultados para los interrogatorios policiales.
Palabras clave:
- Interrogatorio policial,
- entrevista de investigación,
- (no) confesión,
- factores situacionales,
- análisis de árboles decisionales
Appendices
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